What are the odds of Huge Reds on a single Ice Fishing round?

1.89% per round, or about 1 in 53. Every round is independent, so this number never changes with what came before.

How many Ice Fishing rounds until Huge Reds is likely?

On average one hit every 53 rounds; half of all waits are over within 37 rounds. For a 90% chance of at least one hit you need 121 rounds, for 99% about 242.

Is Ice Fishing "due" a Huge Reds after a long wait?

No. A wait of 120 rounds without Huge Reds happens 10.2% of the time from any starting point, and the next round still has the same 1.89% chance. The calculator tells you how unusual a wait is, not that a hit is coming.

Where do the theoretical and observed numbers come from?

Theoretical odds use the published rules (content-src/guides/ice-fishing/rtp.md). Observed figures come from the rounds our tracker has recorded and change as new rounds arrive.

Ice Fishing Bonus probability calculator

Huge Reds lands on 1.89% of Ice Fishing rounds (1 in 53). Pick an outcome and a number of rounds to see the odds, the average wait and how unusual the current drought is.

Game

OutcomeNext N roundsRounds since last hit

At least once in 50

61.4%

Chance per round

1.89%

1 in 53.0

Average wait

median 37 rounds

Rounds for 90% / 99%

121 / 242

A wait of 5 rounds without Huge Reds has a 90.9% chance of happening from any starting point: common - waits this long happen all the time. The next round's chance is still 1.89%.

Formulas: P(at least one in N) = 1 - (1 - p)^N; average wait = 1 / p; P(wait ≥ k) = (1 - p)^k.

Theoretical p = 1 of 53 segments; source: content-src/guides/ice-fishing/rtp.md.

Each round is independent: past results do not change the next round's odds, and no wait makes an outcome "due". Theoretical figures come from the provider's published rules; observed figures come from our own tracker and change as rounds arrive. 18+. Past results do not predict future outcomes. Play with money you can afford to lose.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Huge Reds on a single Ice Fishing round?: 1.89% per round, or about 1 in 53. Every round is independent, so this number never changes with what came before.
How many Ice Fishing rounds until Huge Reds is likely?: On average one hit every 53 rounds; half of all waits are over within 37 rounds. For a 90% chance of at least one hit you need 121 rounds, for 99% about 242.
Is Ice Fishing "due" a Huge Reds after a long wait?: No. A wait of 120 rounds without Huge Reds happens 10.2% of the time from any starting point, and the next round still has the same 1.89% chance. The calculator tells you how unusual a wait is, not that a hit is coming.
Where do the theoretical and observed numbers come from?: Theoretical odds use the published rules (content-src/guides/ice-fishing/rtp.md). Observed figures come from the rounds our tracker has recorded and change as new rounds arrive.

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