What are the odds of Total 3 on a single Lightning Dice round?

0.46% per round, or about 1 in 216. Every round is independent, so this number never changes with what came before.

How many Lightning Dice rounds until Total 3 is likely?

On average one hit every 216 rounds; half of all waits are over within 150 rounds. For a 90% chance of at least one hit you need 497 rounds, for 99% about 993.

Is Lightning Dice "due" a Total 3 after a long wait?

No. A wait of 120 rounds without Total 3 happens 57.3% of the time from any starting point, and the next round still has the same 0.46% chance. The calculator tells you how unusual a wait is, not that a hit is coming.

Where do the theoretical and observed numbers come from?

Theoretical odds use the published rules (content-src/guides/lightning-dice/rtp.md). Observed figures come from the rounds our tracker has recorded and change as new rounds arrive.

Lightning Dice Bonus probability calculator

Total 3 lands on 0.46% of Lightning Dice rounds (1 in 216). Pick an outcome and a number of rounds to see the odds, the average wait and how unusual the current drought is.

Game

OutcomeNext N roundsRounds since last hit

At least once in 50

97.3%

Chance per round

6.94%

1 in 14.4

Average wait

median 10 rounds

Rounds for 90% / 99%

32 / 64

A wait of 3 rounds without Total 14 has a 80.6% chance of happening from any starting point: common - waits this long happen all the time. The next round's chance is still 6.94%.

Formulas: P(at least one in N) = 1 - (1 - p)^N; average wait = 1 / p; P(wait ≥ k) = (1 - p)^k.

Theoretical p = the published rules; source: content-src/guides/lightning-dice/rtp.md.

Each round is independent: past results do not change the next round's odds, and no wait makes an outcome "due". Theoretical figures come from the provider's published rules; observed figures come from our own tracker and change as rounds arrive. 18+. Past results do not predict future outcomes. Play with money you can afford to lose.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Total 3 on a single Lightning Dice round?: 0.46% per round, or about 1 in 216. Every round is independent, so this number never changes with what came before.
How many Lightning Dice rounds until Total 3 is likely?: On average one hit every 216 rounds; half of all waits are over within 150 rounds. For a 90% chance of at least one hit you need 497 rounds, for 99% about 993.
Is Lightning Dice "due" a Total 3 after a long wait?: No. A wait of 120 rounds without Total 3 happens 57.3% of the time from any starting point, and the next round still has the same 0.46% chance. The calculator tells you how unusual a wait is, not that a hit is coming.
Where do the theoretical and observed numbers come from?: Theoretical odds use the published rules (content-src/guides/lightning-dice/rtp.md). Observed figures come from the rounds our tracker has recorded and change as new rounds arrive.

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